Investment profile
Economics report
International financial centres do not exist in isolation. They are influenced - to a greater or lesser degree - by prevailing economic, political and market trends. In this section of the site, we summarise and present the most relevant research and commentary on the economic perfrormance and trends in the market for individual financial centres, regions and around the globe. The research organisations quoted on the following pages are among the most prestigious.
Reports are grouped according to jurisdiction, market sector, region or performance criteria. We have also included in this section the latest material for the world's leading credit rating agencies such as S&P and Moody's. Within the economics report are also summaries of recent missions by international organisations such as the IMF to particular territories. It is also the home for peer group reviews by single issue bodies such as the Financial Action Task Force. The aim is to present in a single source a comprehensive guide to key data, research, indicators and opinion about international financial centres.
Jurisdictions
UNITED STATES
May 24, 2010 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Drives Volatility Higher
Bob Doll, global chief investment officer, equities at Black Rock, looks at the implications of the Sovereign debt crisis on the financial market place and the different alternate solutions that may be found to resolves the issues that have arisen from it.
GLOBAL
May 24, 2010 - The OEDC annual report
The OECD annual report looks at the state of the world economy in the past year. It goes on to look at the successes that the OEDC has achieved in the past year and what it hopes, aims and intends to achieve to deal with the financial crisis in the coming year
GLOBAL
May 25, 2010 - The OECD conducts an analysis of the situation on Structural unemployment in OECD countries. It looks at how the economic crisis has hit the economic markets and how that has affected long run unemployment and how that effects structural unemployment
UNITED STATES
May 24, 2010 - Washington to Sell $1.1 Billion at Lowest Build America Yields
Washington State plans to sell $1.1 billion of Build America debt in the week's biggest municipal bond sale after yields on the taxable securities reached the lowest level since their inception last year
GLOBAL
May 26, 2009 - GDP in the OECD area fell by a record 2.1% in the first quarter of 2009
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD area fell by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2009, the largest fall since OECD records began in 1960, according to preliminary estimates, and followed a fall of 2.0% of GDP in the previous quarter.In the United States GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2009, the same rate as in the previous quarter. Japan’s GDP declined by 4.0%, following a 3.8% decrease in the previous quarter.
UNITED STATES
May 19, 2009 - Equities fall 13.9%, says Mercer
Mercer’s first-quarter 2009 Defined Contribution Universe Summary found losses in all equity markets during the period. The quarterly report analyses returns of various funds and helps institutional investors evaluate their mutual fund managers’ performance against other funds and asset class benchmarks.
UNITED STATES
April 8, 2009 - S&P says Q1 US dividends worst since 1955
Standard & Poor’s announced today that a record 367 of the approximately 7,000 publicly owned US companies that report dividend information to Standard & Poor’s Dividend Record decreased their dividend payment during the first quarter of 2009, representing a 332% increase from the 83 issues that decreased their dividend during the first quarter of 2008.
IRELAND
April 7, 2009 - Central Bank of Ireland report
GDP will fall by close to 7% this year, with a slightly greater fall likely in the level of employment. The downturn in activity is set to continue into next year, with the economy set to contract by a further 3% in 2010. As a result, GDP is projected to fall cumulatively by more than 12% per cent over the three years 2008 to 2010, implying a broadly similar fall in living standards.
March 31, 2009 - Outlook for 2009
The global financial system has changed radically over 2007 and 2008, with a focus now crystallising on issues such as liquidity management, risk management, transparency, failure resolution and cooperation between regulators. Mourant reports on the progress the Cayman Islands government, CIMA and the financial services community are making on these issues with a view to enhancing the existing regulatory and legal framework in Cayman to ensure Cayman's continuing development as a world-leading offshore financial centre.
SWITZERLAND
March 28, 2009 - Switzerland hits recession
The KOF Swiss economics institute argues that the Swiss economy was hit head-on by the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008. For the coming year, it is forecasting continuous negative quarter-over-quarter growth rates. Positive rates can be expected again in the second semester of 2010. The result will be a recessionary phase lasting about two years.
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
March 28, 2009 - Takeover highlights extent of government corruption
Business Monitor International says that the UK government's assumption of power in the Turks and Caicos Islands is unwelcome for long term demiocracy but spotlights the extent of corruption in the jurisdiction. Turks & Caicos, an island group in the West Caribbean which remains a British overseas territory, has been rocked by news that the UK government will suspend all constitutional power and function vested in the territory's parliamentary system.
SWITZERLAND
March 3, 2009 - Q4 2008 GDP declines
The Swiss federal government's economic unit reports that Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell in Q4 by 0.3% compared to Q3. Negative growth impulses derived from fixed investments and from developments in the balance of trade (net exports). A fall in real GDP of 0.6% was recorded compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Final consumption expenditure rose only slightly by 0.1%.
Global perspective
S&P
April 22, 2009 - S&P Shariah indices trim losses in Q1
Standard & Poor’s global benchmark index of Shariah-compliant companies lost further ground over the first quarter of 2009, but this represented declining more than 6% as ongoing financial market disruptions, the liquidity crunch and slowing world economies continued to hamper market performance. However, Standard & Poor’s latest quarterly review confirmed Islamic investors continued to benefit from their lack of exposure to the underperforming financial sector.
April 17, 2009 - Seven major economies encounter deep slowdown, says OECD
OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for February 2009 continue to point to a deep slowdown for all the major seven economies. Although some tentative signs of improvement in the rate of deterioration in the outlook are appearing in some countries, noticeably Italy, France and in some of the smaller OECD countries, the emphasis on tentative cannot be overstated.
STANDARD & POOR'S
April 7, 2009 - Positive news for world markets
Global markets turned around in March with an 8.09% gain. The return, however, was not enough to negate February's decline of 10.09%. Global markets acted in unison for the month, with 45 of the 46 markets positive, leaving Morocco as the sole decliner with a return of -4.13%. For March, the emerging markets posted a 12.51% gain, with 20 of their 21 markets posting positive returns. This marks the best return for the emerging markets since the +15.03% gain in January 2001.
FITCH RATINGS
March 31, 2009 - Global recession grows deeper
The global recession is proving much deeper than anticipated. Recent data has revealed that economic activity and trade declined very abruptly in the last three months of 2008, with the scale and synchronicity of the downturn in production in the advanced economies unmatched by anything seen since the first oil shock in the early 1970s. A widespread collapse in consumer and business confidence in the wake of the intensification of the global banking crisis likely played an important role, alongside a dislocation in the process of trade finance.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
March 14, 2009 - Worldwide recovery not expected until late 2010
Global economic activity is falling - with advanced economies registering their sharpest declines in the post-war era—notwithstanding forceful policy efforts.
According to the latest IMF forecast, global activity is expected to decline by around 0.5-1% in 2009 on an annual average basis, before recovering gradually in the course of 2010. Turning around global growth will depend critically on more concerted policy actions to stabilise financial conditions as well as sustained strong policy support to bolster demand.
Regional perspective
Standard & Poor’s Europe, Middle East and Africa Markets Outlook 2009
The deteriorating global economic outlook, difficult funding conditions in the bank markets, and ongoing volatility in financial markets will strain the credit quality of European companies next year and could send the cumulative default rate on speculative grade issuers above 20% by the end of 2010. The estimate implies that at least 60 European firms will default within the next 12 months, affecting up to €25 billion of outstanding debt, with a similar amount impacted in 2010, making it the worst period on record for defaults by rated firms in Europe.
